The Importance
The 2026 midterm elections, set for November 3, will shape Second Amendment policy for years through control of Congress, key governorships, state legislatures, and ballot measures. With Republicans holding a 53-47 Senate majority and the House closely divided, outcomes could determine whether pro-gun reforms advance or gun-control measures gain traction. Gun-control groups such as Everytown for Gun Safety and Giffords have outspent the NRA on ads and outreach this cycle, targeting competitive races, while pro-2A groups emphasize turnout.
Federal Stakes: Senate and House Control
Senate control affects judicial confirmations and blocking or advancing gun legislation. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority. Key races illustrate sharp divides.
In Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), a hard-line Second Amendment supporter who has opposed federal, state, and local gun-control measures, faces Democrat James Talarico. Talarico supports the Second Amendment but backs universal background checks, raising the age to buy certain semi-automatic rifles, secure storage around children, and measures he describes as stopping crime before it happens; he has supported assault-weapons bans, drawing NRA ads.
Michigan pits Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, who has supported assault-style weapon bans, expanded private-sale background checks, and red-flag laws (and in 2023 suggested replacing the Second Amendment with a right to health care), against Republican Mike Rogers, who holds an NRA-PVF A rating and endorsement.
South Carolina features Democratic nominee Dr. Annie Andrews, endorsed by Everytown and previously a paid consultant for the group, against Republican Darlene Graham. Other competitive or open seats include Alaska (Dan Sullivan R vs. Mary Peltola D, who has affirmed the right to bear arms), New Hampshire (Chris Pappas D vs. John E. Sununu R), Georgia (Jon Ossoff D vs. Mike Collins R), Iowa (Josh Turek D vs. Ashley Hinson R), Kansas (Adam Hamilton D vs. Roger Marshall R), and North Carolina (Roy Cooper D vs. Michael Whatley R). Solid Republican seats such as Alabama (Barry Moore R, NRA-endorsed, vs. Everett Wess D), Arkansas (Tom Cotton R), Idaho (Jim Risch R), and Kentucky (Andy Barr R) are expected to return strong pro-2A voices.
House races matter for bills on semi-automatic bans, magazine limits, universal background checks, or NFA reforms. Everytown is spending at least $10 million to elect former Moms Demand Action volunteers in eight districts: JoAnna Mendoza (AZ-6), Pia Dandiya (FL-22), Christina Bohannan (IA-1), Lindsay James (IA-2), Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-3), Christina Hines (MI-10), Kristen McDonald Rivet (MI-8), and Paige Cognetti (PA-8). Giffords has targeted races including Bob Bresnahan (R-PA) and others. Republican incumbents and challengers with strong NRA grades, such as many in Alabama and Ohio, generally oppose new restrictions and support expansions like NFA tax relief on suppressors.
Gubernatorial and State-Level Impacts
Thirty-six governorships are on the ballot. Governors sign or veto state laws on constitutional carry, assault-weapon and magazine bans, red-flag laws, and preemption. In Ohio, Vivek Ramaswamy (R) has signed 100% pro-gun candidate surveys, pledged to be the most pro-2A governor in state history, opposed red-flag laws, supported constitutional carry expansions and handgun purchases at 18, and vowed to veto bans; Democrat Amy Acton supports stronger background checks, red-flag laws, and “common-sense” reforms.
Kansas features NRA-endorsed Ty Masterson (R), who advanced constitutional carry, lowered the carry age, and removed suppressors and short-barreled firearms from controlled lists, against Cindy Holscher (D), who has backed universal background checks, repealing permitless carry, under-21 restrictions on certain rifles and magazines, and storage mandates. Wisconsin’s open seat pits pro-2A Tom Tiffany (R) against David Crowley (D). Other notable contests include Texas (Greg Abbott R, consistent pro-2A record), Florida (Byron Donalds R vs. David Jolly D), Georgia, Michigan, Arizona (Katie Hobbs D vs. Andy Biggs R), and Pennsylvania, where a Democratic trifecta could advance stalled gun measures such as expanded background checks.
Solid Democratic states such as California (Xavier Becerra or similar vs. Steve Hilton R), New York (Kathy Hochul D), Illinois (JB Pritzker D), and Massachusetts maintain strict regimes; solid Republican states such as Alabama (Tommy Tuberville R), Arkansas (Sarah Huckabee Sanders R), Idaho (Brad Little R), and Tennessee (open, with strong pro-2A candidates) are likely to expand or protect rights. State legislative races in battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin will determine whether pro-gun bills advance or face blockage.
Ballot Measures Directly Addressing Guns
Four states have gun-related measures. Arkansas’s Issue 2 would amend the constitution to affirm a right to possess and use ammunition, firearm accessories, and components without limitation. Colorado and Idaho feature pro-gun proposals (Idaho includes selecting a state gun among models such as the Winchester 1894, Colt Peacemaker, M1 Garand, or others). Massachusetts voters decide whether to keep 2024 legislation requiring registration of untraceable “ghost guns,” banning switches, expanding red-flag authority, and restricting guns in certain public spaces, or repeal it. No measures seek new restrictions.
Regional and State Overview of Positions
Northeast (ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, PA, MD, DE): Senate races in Maine (Susan Collins R, moderate record, vs. Troy Jackson D), New Hampshire (Pappas D vs. Sununu R), and others generally pit pro-control Democrats against more rights-oriented Republicans. Governors in New York (Hochul D, supports restrictions), Pennsylvania (Josh Shapiro D vs. Stacy Garrity R, who pledges to stand for the Second Amendment), and Connecticut (Ned Lamont D) lean toward tighter laws. Solid blue legislatures advance bans and waiting periods.
South (AL, AR, FL, GA, KY, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA, WV): Strong pro-2A Republican nominees dominate, including Alabama’s Barry Moore (NRA A/A+ support for NFA reforms), Georgia’s Mike Collins, South Carolina’s Darlene Graham, and Texas’s Ken Paxton. Democrats such as Jon Ossoff (GA) and Roy Cooper (NC) support expanded checks and other controls. Governors like Abbott (TX) and Huckabee Sanders (AR) protect rights; Virginia and others remain contested.
Midwest (IL, IN, IA, KS, MI, MN, MO, NE, ND, OH, SD, WI): Ohio’s Ramaswamy vs. Acton and Michigan’s El-Sayed vs. Rogers are pivotal. Illinois (Pritzker D) and Minnesota maintain restrictive environments. Kansas and Wisconsin gubernatorial races could flip or reinforce pro-2A majorities. Solid red states like Indiana, Missouri, and the Dakotas feature candidates aligned with constitutional carry and against bans.
West (AK, AZ, CA, CO, HI, ID, MT, NV, NM, OR, UT, WA, WY): Alaska’s Sullivan vs. Peltola (who affirms the right to bear arms) and Arizona’s Hobbs vs. Biggs highlight differences. California, Oregon, Washington, and Colorado have Democratic nominees supporting restrictions (including recent governors filing amicus briefs defending AR-15 bans). Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Wyoming candidates strongly defend rights; Washington’s Supreme Court races could affect challenges to permit-to-purchase laws.
Mountain and Plains (CO, ID, MT, UT, WY, plus others): Pro-2A constitutional and legislative majorities are expected to hold or expand under Republican candidates.
Across all 50 states, Republican nominees for federal and state office generally oppose assault-weapon and magazine bans, universal background checks that function as registries, red-flag laws without due process, and further NFA burdens, while supporting constitutional carry and judicial nominees favorable to Heller, McDonald, and Bruen. Democratic nominees more often back expanded checks, red flags, age restrictions, and feature-based bans. Specific grades from NRA-PVF, GOA, and state groups (e.g., Ohio Gun Owners’ A ratings for many Republicans) provide granular records.
Broader Implications and Outlook
A Republican hold or gain in the Senate and House would likely block new federal restrictions, advance reforms such as further NFA relief or suppressors access, and facilitate pro-2A judicial appointments. Democratic gains could prioritize universal checks, semi-automatic bans, and industry liability measures. State outcomes will drive local laws on carry, storage, and “ghost guns.” With gun-control groups investing heavily and pro-2A turnout historically decisive in midterms, results will hinge on turnout in competitive districts and states.
Voters should consult NRA-PVF grades, candidate questionnaires, and voting records. The election will determine whether recent gains on suppressors, braces, and carry rights consolidate or face reversal.